Methodology
What this site measures
Ledger B tracks PRC export controls on critical materials: which are in force, which are suspended, which items they cover, and when suspensions expire. It does not predict policy; it describes what the instruments say.
Ledger A (not yet deployed at this site) tracks US federal trade-secret and economic-espionage matters with a documented PRC nexus, including acquittals and dismissals as prominently as convictions.
Evidence tiers (Ledger B)
| Tier | Basis | Counted in totals? |
|---|---|---|
| T0 — Enacted instrument | Published by the issuing authority; currently in force, suspended, or formerly in force | Yes (EFFECTIVE / SUSPENDED / EXPIRED) |
| T1 — Official draft | Published draft, comment period, or annual export licensing catalogue addition | Yes, flagged as PROPOSED |
| T2 — Official signal | MOFCOM spokesperson statement, State Council policy document, Five-Year Plan language | Yes, flagged |
| T3 — Reported | Credible press reporting of internal deliberation | No — watchlist only |
| T4 — Analyst inference | Commentary and speculation | No — watchlist only, labeled |
No composite score
This site does not compute a composite "chokepoint index" or single risk number. Exposure is rendered as separate, individually sourced components: US net import reliance, China's share of US imports, China's share of global production, NDS shortfall status. A composite score manufactures false precision and is an attack surface. If one is offered it must be user-adjustable and transparent; it never appears as a proprietary figure.
How state is resolved
Controls are modelled at clause level, not instrument level, because instruments can suspend individual clauses while others remain in force (Announcement 72 suspended only Clause 二 of Announcement 46; Clause 一 — the military-end-use prohibition — was never suspended). The resolver applies suspensions to the specific clauses they name and returns one of: EFFECTIVE, SUSPENDED, LAPSED_PENDING_CONFIRMATION, NOT_YET_ISSUED, EXPIRED, REVOKED, PROPOSED.
SUSPENDED means temporarily not enforced, not revoked. Suspended controls reinstate automatically on the suspension expiry date unless a new suspension or revocation is issued. LAPSED_PENDING_CONFIRMATION means the suspension period has ended but reinstatement has not been confirmed from a primary source — it must never read as "controls are back."
Class-aggregate figures
USGS does not always report separate import-reliance figures for every rare-earth element. Where the figure is drawn from a USGS "Rare Earths, Compounds and Metals" row that covers the class rather than the element, it is labelled class-aggregate at the point of display. It describes the rare-earth class, not the element specifically, and must not be read as element-level data.
Source attribution
Every displayed figure traces to a named source URL. MOFCOM instruments are authoritative in Chinese; English translations are secondary and are labelled with their translator. Stated rationale (verbatim from the instrument) is separated from attributed motive (sourced opinion), which is stored and labelled separately and never merged with stated rationale.